Research update

A running archive of MSFT (Microsoft) views from Tactical Positioning.

MSFT

MSFTMSFT (Microsoft) has been a profitable short for those who shorted at 475 and covered much lower. The recent rebound offered another shorting opportunity in the 470 to 480 area.

MSFTI mentioned a second short opportunity around the 470-480 area the other day. MSFT (Microsoft) failed to recapture the downtrend resistance line and got decimated after earnings after the close yesterday. Coincidence? I don't think so.

MSFTIf MSFT (Microsoft) breaks below the 395 support line, next support is around 340.

MSFTI first noted the bearish double-top pattern when MSFT (Microsoft) was trading above 500, and identified several exceptionally low-risk entry points on the way down. The next target sits around 340.

MSFTMSFT (Microsoft) could be forming a double bottom, the inverse of the double top that led to its 40% decline over the past six months.

MSFTMSFT (Microsoft) bounced forcefully from the double bottom I identified previously.

MSFTIf MSFT (Microsoft) stays below 395, the path opens back toward 342.

MSFTMSFT bounced from our 342 support level and is now facing resistance around 395.

Unless MSFT reclaims 395 and holds above it, the path remains back toward 342. A confirmed break below 342 opens the door to another leg lower.

The supplier-hyperscaler divergence remains intact. As long as MSFT stays below 395 while semis edge higher, the tape will continue to signal that the free cash flow transfer from hyperscalers to AI hardware suppliers is not over.

MSFTMSFT needs to close above 395 to put bulls back in control. Another rejection there puts 342 back in play.