Trading Desk

The regime is visible in the plumbing Liquidity is not one number. Funding, depth and volatility are moving together, while dealer balance sheets remain selective. A market can rally while its ability to absorb the next

Northstar Macro

Column · Rates & Liquidity

US10YBullish@4.11%

测试 C2 · 持仓中的跟进 Note，沿用当前方向。北辰宏观测试账号的模拟案例；以下保留原有研究排版和关联关系。 Thread C · Trade 3 follow-up The latest auction tail keeps the active view intact. A sustained move back below 4.05% would challenge this setup.

Northstar Macro

Column · Rates & Liquidity

US10YBullish@4.11%

测试 C1 · 同一资产第三轮交易：前一轮已平仓，新多头独立记录。北辰宏观测试账号的模拟案例；以下保留原有研究排版和关联关系。 Thread C · Trade 3 opened Term premium is rebuilding as supply returns to the foreground. We open a new bullish yield view with a clearly separate thesis.

Northstar Macro

Column · Rates & Liquidity

US10YBearish@4.14%

测试 B2 · 空头跟进：同一 Trade 的后续研究，不重复开仓。北辰宏观测试账号的模拟案例；以下保留原有研究排版和关联关系。 Thread B · Trade 2 follow-up The move is broadening from the front end into the belly. Dollar and credit confirmation improve the quality of the signal.

Northstar Macro

Column · Rates & Liquidity

US10YBearish@4.14%

测试 B1 · US10Y 新线程市价做空。北辰宏观测试账号的模拟案例；以下保留原有研究排版和关联关系。 Thread B · Trade 2 opened A softer growth impulse and easing rate volatility support a bearish yield view. We are looking for confirmation below the prior range.

Northstar Macro

Column · Rates & Liquidity

US10Y

测试 A4 · 中性观察：只有资产引用，没有交易动作。北辰宏观测试账号的模拟案例；以下保留原有研究排版和关联关系。 Timeline only · neutral watch CPI details softened, but supply and positioning still point in opposite directions. This is context, not a new trade.

Northstar Macro

Column · Rates & Liquidity

US10Y

测试 A2 · 同线程跟进：关联原 Trade，未新增交易。北辰宏观测试账号的模拟案例；以下保留原有研究排版和关联关系。 Thread A · Trade 1 follow-up Auction demand stabilized after the first move, but real yields remain firm enough to keep the bullish yield view open.

Sep 1, 2026

Vega Trading

VXJPBearish@108USD

Test Thread · Japan crowded-positioning lifecycle (4/5) Domestic buying is cushioning the decline, but it is not enough to reverse the positioning signal.

Vega Trading

VXJPBearish@108USD

Test Thread · Japan crowded-positioning lifecycle (3/5) A stronger yen is beginning to pressure forward earnings; the Bearish thesis remains intact.

Vega Trading

VXJPBearish@108USD

Test Thread · Japan crowded-positioning lifecycle (2/5) Japan exporter revisions soften at the margin; keep the Bearish view unchanged.

Aug 31, 2026

Vega Trading

VXIGBullish@102USD

Test Thread · Investment-grade limit lifecycle (2/2) Investment-grade follow-up: the limit level remains valid while spreads consolidate.

Vega Trading

VXGLBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Gold demand lifecycle (2/2) Gold follow-up: maintain the existing Bullish view without a new signal record.

Vega Trading

VXOIBullish@94USD

Test Thread · Crude supply lifecycle (3/3) Crude supply discipline improves; reverse to a Bullish research view at 94.00.

Vega Trading

VXDU

Test Thread · Duration lifecycle (3/3) Duration post-close review: supply pressure is easing; remain at No View.

Vega Trading

VXJYBearish@100pts

Test Thread · Yen carry lifecycle (2/2) Yen follow-up: the carry gap remains wide; retain the Bearish view.

Vega Trading

VXJPBearish@108USD

Test Thread · Japan crowded-positioning lifecycle (1/5) Japan positioning is now crowded; open a Bearish research view at 108.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalon

Aug 30, 2026

Vega Trading

VXGLBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Gold demand lifecycle (1/2) Gold demand broadens; open a Bullish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. Open the Thr

Vega Trading

VXIGBullishPending102USD

Test Thread · Investment-grade limit lifecycle (1/2) Investment-grade credit is attractive on a pullback; place a Bullish limit view at 102.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather th

Aug 29, 2026

Vega Trading

VXEQ

Test Thread · Equity breadth lifecycle (3/3) Equity post-close review: breadth remains constructive, but no new view is opened.

Vega Trading

VXDUClosed@92USD

Test Thread · Duration lifecycle (2/3) Duration move is realised; close the Bearish research view at 92.00.

Vega Trading

VXJPBullish@100USD

Test Post · Vega Japan Equity Basket Foreign-flow snapshot: futures positioning is elevated, while cash-market participation is narrowing.

Aug 28, 2026

Vega Trading

VXDUBearish@100USD

Test Thread · Duration lifecycle (1/3) Duration supply pressure rises; open a Bearish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. Open

Vega Trading

VXEQClosed@112USD

Test Thread · Equity breadth lifecycle (2/3) Equity target reached; close the Bullish research view at 112.00.

Aug 27, 2026

Vega Trading

VXEQBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Equity breadth lifecycle (1/3) Equity breadth improves; open a Bullish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. Open t

Vega Trading

ESZ6Bullish@6,420.25pts

Test Thread · Futures-point native-unit lifecycle (1/2) Breadth improves; open a Bullish S&P 500 E-mini view at 6420.25. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain p

Aug 26, 2026

Vega Trading

Column · Global Rates & Dollar

SPX

开盘一小时，指数层面看起来平静，但内部结构仍偏窄。上涨家数没有跟随权重指数刷新高点。这是对上一条研究的 Asset Update，不构成新的观点变化。维持原观点关注等权指数不重复创建信号 Related assets

Vega Trading

VXUSBearish@100pts

Test Thread · Dollar view lifecycle (1/2) Dollar momentum rolls over; open a Bearish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. Open t

Aug 25, 2026

Vega Trading

Column · AI Capex Cycle

SOXXBearishCancelled · Unfilled320USD

半导体篮子没有触及 320.00 的卖出限价，而随后公布的订单数据改善了短期风险收益。我们取消这条待触发入场。它会保留为 Cancelled 记录，但不会进入已验证收益。 SOXX Cancelled 入场从未验证不计入收益 Related assets

Vega Trading

Column · AI Capex Cycle

NVDA🔒︎

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Vega Trading

VXOIClosed@90USD

Test Thread · Crude supply lifecycle (2/3) Crude downside target is met; close the Bearish research view at 90.00.

Vega Trading

Column · Middle East Energy Chain Column · Global Rates & Dollar

XAUUSD🔒︎

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Aug 24, 2026

Vega Trading

VIXBearish@28pts

Test Thread · Volatility-point native-unit lifecycle (1/2) Implied volatility is elevated; open a Bearish volatility view at 28.0. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalo

Vega Trading

VXCUBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Copper inventory lifecycle (2/3) Copper follow-up: physical premiums remain firm; maintain the Bullish view.

Vega Trading

Column · Global Rates & Dollar

DXYClosed@96.8pts

长端利率回落完成了对美元空头的确认，现价已经进入我们的第一目标区间。以 96.80 关闭 Bearish。关闭一条 View 不代表立刻反向看多，当前回到 No View。关闭 DXY Bearish 当前 No View 不自动反向 Related assets

Vega Trading

VXJYBearish@100pts

Test Thread · Yen carry lifecycle (1/2) Yen carry pressure persists; open a Bearish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. Open th

Aug 23, 2026

Vega Trading

VXRE🔒︎

Subscriber research update

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Vega Trading

VXEMBearish@100USD

Test Thread · Emerging-market funding lifecycle (2/3) Emerging-market follow-up: dollar liquidity remains restrictive; retain the Bearish view.

Aug 22, 2026

Vega Trading

USHY-OASBullish@430bp

Test Thread · Credit-spread native-unit lifecycle (1/2) High-yield risk is deteriorating; open a Bullish spread-widening view at 430 bp. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a st

Vega Trading

VXVLBearish@100USD

Test Thread · Volatility premium lifecycle (1/2) Volatility risk premium is elevated; open a Bearish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone pl

Vega Trading

VXBT🔒︎

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Aug 21, 2026

Vega Trading

VXEUBullish@100pts

Test Thread · Euro rate-support lifecycle (1/2) Euro rate support improves; open a Bullish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post.

Vega Trading

VXJPBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Japan earnings-revision lifecycle (2/3) Japan follow-up: exporter breadth confirms the move; maintain the Bullish view.

Aug 20, 2026

Vega Trading

XAUUSD

A running archive of Gold views from Tactical Positioning.

Vega Trading

VXHYBullish@100USD

Test Thread · High-yield carry lifecycle (1/2) High-yield spreads offer improving carry; open a Bullish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone

Vega Trading

VXCUBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Copper inventory lifecycle (1/3) Copper inventories tighten; open a Bullish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. O

Aug 19, 2026

Vega Trading

US10YBearish@4.5%

Test Thread · Treasury-yield native-unit lifecycle (1/2) Treasury yields look set to fall; open a Bearish 10Y yield view at 4.50%. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalo

Vega Trading

VXEMBearish@100USD

Test Thread · Emerging-market funding lifecycle (1/3) Emerging-market funding conditions deteriorate; open a Bearish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than

Vega Trading

VXOIBearish@100USD

Test Thread · Crude supply lifecycle (1/3) Crude supply is rebuilding; open a Bearish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post. Open

Aug 18, 2026

Vega Trading

VXFXBullish@1.082USD

Test Thread · EUR/USD native-unit lifecycle (1/2) Euro rate support improves; open a Bullish EUR/USD view at 1.0820. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standalone plain post.

Vega Trading

VXJPBullish@100USD

Test Thread · Japan earnings-revision lifecycle (1/3) Japan earnings revisions turn higher; open a Bullish research view at 100.00. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than a standal

Aug 17, 2026

Vega Trading

VXJP

Test Thread · BoJ policy-transmission monitor (4/4) The immediate policy catalyst has passed without confirmation; close this watch with no directional view.

Aug 14, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

Since we called the bottom in the Korean market in July, it has rallied roughly 30%. KOSPI has rebounded from our support and is heading toward 7.1K. A sustained move above 7.1K puts 7.5K back in play, followed by 8.1K.

Vega Trading

SOXX

Chart update

Aug 13, 2026

Vega Trading

VXJP

Test Thread · BoJ policy-transmission monitor (3/4) The JGB move is still not transmitting into equity volatility; no Signal change.

Aug 9, 2026

Vega Trading

VXJP

Test Thread · BoJ policy-transmission monitor (2/4) Wage data keeps the policy risk two-sided; remain Neutral while the transmission path develops.

Aug 8, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

is approaching the key 14.2 support. I expect VIX to bottom around this level.

Vega Trading

MSTR

AAPLBullishPending313.33USD

Aug 5, 2026

Vega Trading

VXJP

Test Thread · BoJ policy-transmission monitor (1/4) Start a BoJ normalization watch; there is not yet enough evidence for a directional view. This marked Preview fixture tests a complete research update chain rather than

Aug 3, 2026

Vega Trading

USDJPY

As I have said before, for an intervention to have a sustained effect, policymakers need to engineer a self-reinforcing spiral. In USDJPY, that means buying yen hard enough to force yen shorts into capitulation. 155.55 i

Aug 1, 2026

Vega Trading

US30Y

As long as US30Y holds above 5.2%, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained move back below 5.2% puts the ascending trendline back in play.

Vega Trading

US30Y

Chart update

Vega Trading

USDJPY

In late June, I wrote, "Unilateral intervention rarely succeeds, but coordinated intervention can have a more sustained effect. Without Washington on board, MOF can slow the move, as we saw in May, but it is unlikely to

Jul 31, 2026

Vega Trading

SOXX

As expected,SOXX printed a new low this week after the relief rally I predicted last week. Price remains below 533 despite Friday's sharp reversal. Unless SOXX closes back above 533 over the next few sessions, the path o

Vega Trading

US10Y

Global long-end yields are on an ominous trajectory. I warned about long-end yields exploding to the upside back in 25Q4, and they're set to only grind higher. In May, referring to the US10Y multi-year descending trendli

Jul 27, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

is now moving through the air pocket toward 5.8K. I expect the Korean market to rebound later this week.

Jul 25, 2026

SOX

SOX

SOX

SOX

I showed you the charts below a month ago, just as SOXX peaked, and laid out the exact path semiconductors followed during the dot-com unwind. Since then, SOX has tracked that path with remarkable accuracy.

Vega Trading

601899

has shown relative strength over the past two weeks alongside the rally in copper. After failing to hold above 32.4, price is now backtesting the ascending trendline. In late June, I flagged 25 as the line in the

Vega Trading

VIX

continues to grind higher from the July lows. As long as oil stays elevated, I expect that trend to continue, with 21.6 as the next test.

Jul 24, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

Chart update

Vega Trading

NVDA

has remained resilient over the past few weeks even as semis sold off. But the risk sits with the buyers funding the AI buildout. Off-balance-sheet vehicles and circular financing can keep capex flowing, but they ca

Vega Trading

DXY

Chart update

Vega Trading

DXY

The dollar rallied as rates moved higher and equities sold off. DXY has now broken above the descending channel and is set to retest the prior high around 101.7. A sustained break above 101.7 opens a large vacuum above.

Vega Trading

US02Y

As noted previously, past TACOs have repeatedly coincided with yields reaching key levels. That is the risk we must monitor now. Fed funds futures now price roughly two 25bp hikes by year-end. That would put significant

Jul 23, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

failed at 24.3K again and has pulled back to the ascending trendline, once again validating my 22.1K-24.3K range. As long as the trendline holds, another test of 24.3K remains in play. A sustained break below it pu

Vega Trading

HSI

has stalled below the 25.2K resistance. A sustained close above 25.2K opens the door to 27.3K. Unless HSI clears 25.2K, the rebound remains vulnerable. Another rejection puts 22.5K back in focus.

Jul 18, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

remains above the ascending trendline. With SOXX now below 530, NVDA is the final missing piece. Unless NVDA reclaims 208 over the next few sessions, the ascending trendline at around 196 should remain under pressur

Jul 17, 2026

Vega Trading

SOXX

broke below 530 and the secular trendline from the 2008 low on Thursday. Friday's close below 530 confirmed the break. This is the first confirmed breakdown in a bellwether sector and likely marks the beginning of t

Vega Trading

MSFT

needs to close above 395 to put bulls back in control. Another rejection there puts 342 back in play.

Jul 11, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

is at its lowest level since January. Most summers are quiet. As long as the war does not escalate back to March levels and semis hold key support, this one could be no different. The 14 area is likely to be the floo

Vega Trading

US30Y

has already reclaimed the ascending trendline and pushed through 5%. Hold above 5% and 5.2% is next.

Vega Trading

FTSE

extended last week's breakout to 10.7K, then pulled back into the ascending trendline and bounced from there. As long as FTSE holds above the ascending trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. The pri

Vega Trading

CL1!

WTI shares almost the same structure as BZ. The main difference is that WTI trades at a discount to Brent and should move less in dollar terms during limited escalation. If the Middle East blows up again, BZ and CL shoul

Jul 10, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

failed again at 24.34K, as expected. A sustained break above it reopens the upside path. Failure there keeps the index range-bound between 22K and 24K.

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

As long as the trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the prior high around 73K as the next test. A sustained break below the trendline shifts the path toward 63.8K.

Vega Trading

KOSPI

Last week I said failure at 8.1K would leave 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below. That path played out almost exactly. KOSPI failed at 8.1K, broke 7.5K, and tested 7.1K before bouncing. KOSPI now needs to reclaim 7.5K and hold

Vega Trading

SOXX

held 534 again and bounced. The sharper drawdowns and violent rebounds are exactly what I expected from the distribution-phase playbook I laid out a few weeks ago. I flagged SOXX for a rebound on both Tuesday and We

Vega Trading

HTI

extended the bounce from my 4.2K-4.25K support and is now testing the descending trendline around 4.74K. A sustained break above 4.74K opens the door to 5.14K. If it fails here, price could pull back toward 4.25K. Pr

Vega Trading

SOXX

Chart update

Vega Trading

SOX

The blue line is SOX during the dot-com era. So far, SOX has largely followed its dot-com playbook. We’ll see if this time is really any different.

Vega Trading

XLF

is testing its previous high around 56.4, leaving a potential double top in play. The rally over the past few weeks is consistent with the market pricing a more hawkish Fed path, typically a tailwind for financials.

Vega Trading

MSFT

bounced from our 342 support level and is now facing resistance around 395. Unless MSFT reclaims 395 and holds above it, the path remains back toward 342. A confirmed break below 342 opens the door to another leg lo

Jul 4, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

Volatility is trying to wake up, but it has not broken the structure yet. 14.2 remains the line in the sand on the downside. As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) holds above that level, volatility compression has limit

Vega Trading

USDJPY

fell back to our 160.8 support on Thursday after suspected MOF intervention showed up in the tape during Asia hours. It was then hit again by weak nonfarm payrolls, which added another leg of pressure on the dolla

Vega Trading

US30Y

bounced hard after testing the rising trendline and is now back near 5% resistance. A sustained close above 5% reopens the path toward the prior highs. If 5% rejects again, the risk is another pullback toward the r

Vega Trading

FTSE

As long as FTSE (FTSE 100) stays above the rising trendline, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break back below that line would put the breakout at risk and open the door to a retest of 10,474.

Vega Trading

CL1!

Crude has now round-tripped the geopolitical spike. Brent and WTI are both pressing the lower end of the descending channel, so this is where a relief bounce can start, but it is not guaranteed. The bigger structure is s

Jul 3, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

(Nifty 50) bounced from the April lows, but 24.3K is still capping the move. Since the war started, crude has been the macro variable that matters most for India. As Hormuz traffic improves and the oil risk premium

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

(Nikkei 225) is pulling back into the rising trendline after a strong June move. The trend is stretched, but not broken yet. The rising trendline is the first line in the sand. As long as it holds, the path of lea

Vega Trading

KOSPI

has lost the steep rising trendline and is now bouncing back into 8.1K. That is where the bounce has to prove itself.A sustained move back above 8.1K would stabilize the tape. Failure there keeps 7.5K exposed, with

Vega Trading

JP30Y

(Japan 30-Year Yield) bounced sharply from 3.8% and is back above 4%. A sustained close above 4% opens the door to the prior high around 4.2%. Failure to hold 4% shifts the path back toward 3.8%.

Vega Trading

601899

bounced from 25 as expected. That remains key support, coinciding with gold holding 3.9-4.0K. On the upside, 30 is the first resistance, followed by 32. A push into 30-32 should track gold toward 4.4K.

Vega Trading

JP10Y

(Japan 10-Year Yield) has reclaimed the late-June range and is back pressing the prior high around 2.8%. A sustained close above 2.8% keeps the upside path open and puts 2.9% in play. If 2.8% rejects again, the fir

Vega Trading

MAGS

(Magnificent 7) bounced from the 60-63 support. A sustained move above the trendline would put the mega-cap basket back in control. Failure here keeps the setup vulnerable and puts 63 back in play, followed by 60. T

Jun 28, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

(Korea Composite Index) has lost the steep rising trendline and is now bouncing back into 8.1K. That is where the bounce has to prove itself. A sustained move back above 8.1K would stabilize the tape. Failure there

Jun 27, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

Chart update

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) is starting to wake up. Daily has broken above the downtrend resistance, which is the first warning that volatility suppression is weakening. This is not full confirmation yet, but the chart i

Vega Trading

USDJPY

Chart update

Vega Trading

DXY

reclaimed 100.2 and is now holding above the uptrendline support around 101.15. As long as DXY holds the uptrendline support, the path remains higher toward 102, followed by the larger downtrend resistance. A break b

Vega Trading

FTSE

(FTSE 100) is pinned around 10.47K, where horizontal resistance, the old downtrend, and the rising support structure are all converging. A sustained close above 10.47K puts bulls back in control. A failure here, esp

Vega Trading

US02Y

Oil coming off took some pressure out of the long end, but the front end has not rolled over. US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) reclaimed 4%, backtested it, and is still holding the short-term rising trendline. That kee

Jun 26, 2026

Vega Trading

601899

A bounce is very likely here. If 25 fails, the downside opens again.

Vega Trading

HTI

(Hang Seng Tech Index) lost 4.737K, failed to reclaim it, and is now sitting on major support at 4.195K. That is the final line in the sand. I expect a bounce from here. A confirmed break below 4.195K opens the door

Vega Trading

SOX

The blue line is SOX (Semiconductor Index) during the Dot-com bubble.

Vega Trading

SOX

The blue line is SOX (Semiconductor Index) during the Dot-com bubble. Look familiar? I don't think I need to repeat the similarities. We have laid them out enough. The point now is simple: I expect volatility to pick up

Vega Trading

HSI

broke down hard after failing to reclaim 25.25K. That level has turned from support into resistance, and the move has now flushed straight into the 22.55K support zone. This is a critical support level and I expect a

Vega Trading

JP30Y

(Japan 30-Year Yield) pulled back from 4.2% but are still holding 3.7%-3.8%. As long as that range holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. 4% is the first test, followed by 4.2%. A sustained break below

Vega Trading

GDX

(Gold Miners ETF) lost the ascending trendline and remains capped below 79.15. A sustained move above 79.15 opens the door to 92.4. Failure there keeps the path lower toward the recent lows. A stronger dollar, hawkis

Vega Trading

JP10Y

Japan rates are still in a structural repricing, but the first cooling phase has started. JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) ripped almost one-way into 2.8%, then failed to extend and is now chopping lower around 2.6-2.7%. That

Vega Trading

PLTR

(Palantir) has strong support at 101-105. For bears, do not chase downside here as the stock is oversold. The better short is either a failed backtest of 128 or a confirmed break below 101.

Vega Trading

US10Y

(U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) is still trapped inside a long compression pattern, with lower highs from 2025 and higher lows from the March washout. The next support zone is around 4.05-4.1%. If that holds, 10s sta

Jun 25, 2026

Vega Trading

USDJPY

The BOJ hike has not changed the tape. Rate differentials are still too wide and the Fed is not giving the market a dovish turn. Unless MOF intervenes again, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Unilateral

Jun 20, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) is still the final missing piece. It reclaimed 208 after the prior breakdown and is now trying to hold that level from above. That makes 208 the line in the sand. As long as NVDA holds 208, bears do not hav

Vega Trading

USDJPY

cleared 160.86 and is now trying to turn that level into support. That makes 160.86 the line in the sand. BOJ hiked this week, but the Fed is still at 3.50%-3.75%, leaving a 250-275 bps policy-rate gap, and the Fe

Vega Trading

DXY

broke above the 100.2 resistance I flagged months ago and is now pressing into the next resistance zone around 101. This is the level that matters now. As long as the dollar holds above 100.2, the breakout remains va

Vega Trading

US30Y

(U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) failed again around 5% and is now testing uptrend support. The setup remains binary. If US30Y gets back above 5%, the bond market releases pressure again and long-duration equities are

Vega Trading

FTSE

(FTSE 100) failed around 10.47K again and slipped back below the compression zone. Bulls need to reclaim 10.47K and hold above the downtrend line. If it fails and loses the rising support, the structure turns vulner

Vega Trading

CL1!

WTI technicals are weaker than BZ's and it needs more heavy lifting to reclaim the lost structure.

Vega Trading

US02Y

The front end is the warning. US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) backtested 4% from above and is pushing higher, even as the market prices a higher probability of a peace deal. Next major resistance sits around 4.4%. As

Jun 19, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

India has been stuck for a reason. No real AI beta, expensive valuation, foreign money rotating elsewhere, and RBI still constrained by oil, rupee weakness, and inflation risk. The market is not getting the liquidity tai

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

(Nikkei 225) held the 63.8K support I flagged and ripped higher. As long as the rising trendline holds, bulls remain in control and the path of least resistance stays higher. The macro setup still favors Japan equ

Vega Trading

HTI

lost the 4.74K support I flagged and remains below the descending trendline. A sustained move back above 4.74K opens the door to 5.14K. Failure to reclaim it keeps 4.2K in play. The global AI bid remains concentrated

Vega Trading

HSI

lost 25.25K, the floor of the prior range, and the bounce from below failed right at that level. That is a failed backtest. Until HSI reclaims 25.25K, the breakdown stays valid and the path of least resistance remain

Vega Trading

601899

(Zijin Mining Group) broke below the major rising trendline and is now backtesting it from below. That keeps the structure bearish unless it can reclaim both the trendline and horizontal resistance around 32.4 qui

Vega Trading

GDX

(Gold Miners ETF) moved back above 79 after the breakdown but was rejected again at 92.4. 79 remains the line in the sand. As long as it holds, GDX can make another run at 92.4. A sustained break back below 79 puts t

Vega Trading

MSFT

If MSFT (Microsoft) stays below 395, the path opens back toward 342.

Vega Trading

MAGS

(Magnificent 7) needs to hold above 63. Below 63, the next downside level is 60.

Jun 13, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) filled the gap around 23 before reversing sharply lower. The immediate upside signal has been rejected for now.

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) is now trading below the key 208 level. If it fails to reclaim this level while the rest of the semi stocks continue to rally like there is no tomorrow, it would mark the beginning of the end.

Vega Trading

USDJPY

As mentioned, unless we see the Strait return to normal and/or a BOJ rate hike, USDJPY should break above 160. Yen has weakened back above 160 and is now approaching the recent high that triggered MOF intervention in lat

Vega Trading

DXY

The dollar faced resistance at 100.2, as expected. Yields remain the main driver of recent dollar movement, and next week's FOMC is critical as the market gets the first official encounter between the new Fed chair and i

Vega Trading

US30Y

We have seen repeated attempts and fakeouts around key resistance, and these levels are being attacked and defended for one simple reason: they matter for the bond market and for every leveraged asset sitting on top of i

Vega Trading

CL1!

CL (WTI crude futures) lost the second triangle support this week. It must reclaim that level in the next few sessions; otherwise, it is likely heading toward 80.

Jun 12, 2026

Vega Trading

SOXX

(Semiconductor ETF) bounced from horizontal support around 533. Despite the recent drawdowns, the sector remains overextended on the larger timeframe. Bulls need to hold 533 to keep the rebound alive; a break below

Vega Trading

601899

(Zijin) broke below its major trendline support and is now backtesting that trendline from below. Bulls need to reclaim it quickly to repair the structure. A failure to reclaim would confirm the breakdown and sign

Vega Trading

XLF

(U.S. Financials ETF) is rallying ahead of an anticipated hawkish Fed and a higher-for-longer rate environment. That is not a good sign for long-duration assets.

Vega Trading

GDX

(Gold Miners ETF) broke below its major trendline support this week, then bounced back to retest the level from below. Bulls need to reclaim both the trendline and the 79 area quickly. If this retest fails, the break

Vega Trading

PLTR

(Palantir) is sitting right on 128 support. This is the line in the sand for AI software. A breach here will not be pretty, for PLTR or for the AI application names. Below 128, the next real support sits around 101,

Vega Trading

MAGS

(Magnificent 7) headed lower and found support around 63, as expected. The recent relative weakness of MAGS versus NDX is concerning. Almost all Mag 7 names are running negative free cash flow, and AI capex funding

Jun 6, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

Volatility should explode exponentially if VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) breaks above 22 in the coming sessions.

Vega Trading

DXY

The dollar jumped on rate-hike expectations on Friday. Next stop is 100.2, followed by 101. Above that, the door opens to repricing across all asset classes.

Vega Trading

FTSE

(FTSE 100) must reclaim 10.4K to see more upside. If it fails to do so, the structure remains vulnerable and risks heading lower.

Vega Trading

Oil bounced from trendline support around 87, but it remains contained as inventories are drained at a record pace to offset the ongoing supply shock. The administration keeps pushing fake-news headlines to create enough

Jun 5, 2026

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

If NIKKEI (Nikkei 225) fails to hold 63.8K support, it risks testing the low 60K area in the coming days. Bulls need to defend this level to keep the structure intact.

Vega Trading

HTI

(Hang Seng Tech Index) had a failed attempt to break out to the upside. The move was quickly reversed, and the index is now testing the key 4.74K support that has held it afloat for the past few months. A decisive br

Vega Trading

SOXX

This feels like late March 2000. If you look at the SOX (Semiconductor Index) chart, it closely resembles the dot-com terminal rally that ended the tech bull market. Despite the sharp drawdown on Friday, SOXX (Semiconduc

Vega Trading

GDX

(Gold Miners ETF) is hanging on to its major trendline support for dear life. If it fails here, we could see it much lower. The structure does not bode well for gold.

Vega Trading

PLTR

(Palantir) is sitting right on support. A breach here would not be pretty, both for PLTR and for AI software names more broadly.

Vega Trading

MAGS

Following Monday's breakdown, MAGS (Magnificent 7) continued to weaken and is now sitting on key support. If it fails to produce a bounce from here, it risks heading to 63, followed by 60.

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) broke below the key 208 level on Friday. This is perhaps the most important single-stock level to watch, as I have mentioned repeatedly over the past few weeks. If NVDA fails to reclaim 208 in the coming se

May 31, 2026

Vega Trading

FTSE

(FTSE 100) reversed from its downtrend resistance line. The triangle is coming to an end, so resolution is imminent. A sustained close above resistance would put bulls back in control, while a break below triangle s

May 30, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

As I laid out two weeks ago, if the market decides to put an end to this AI frenzy, NVDA (Nvidia) will likely post a monthly close below 208 and lead the market lower in the coming months. For bulls, the pullback into 20

Vega Trading

US02Y

Thanks to Axios and Al Jazeera, the market appears to be buying the imminent peace-deal story, which is pressuring yields lower. For US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield), the 4% level remains key support. A clean break bel

May 29, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

(Nifty 50) bounced off my 22K support and is now running into resistance around 24.4K. A decisive break above 24.4K would reopen the upside path, while failure there keeps the market range-bound and vulnerable to a

Vega Trading

US10Y

Chart update

Vega Trading

US10Y

Timely efforts to defend 10Y yields, as this is the most important rate in the world. As mentioned two weeks ago, the US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) multi-year downtrend resistance line was the only resistance globa

Vega Trading

USDJPY

Based on the latest MOF report, Japan spent $70billion defending the yen last month. Back in April-May 2024, it spent $60billion, and in July 2024 it spent $35billion. With oil still elevated, and Japan importing almost

Vega Trading

CL1!

We were expecting an explosive move in oil as the triangle came to an end. Price resolved lower, but the move is not being confirmed by the physical market. Futures are down this week on U.S.-Iran peace-deal headlines, e

May 23, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

If the market decides to put an end to this AI frenzy, NVDA (Nvidia) will likely post a monthly close below 208 and lead the market lower in the coming months. For bulls, the pullback is a low-risk entry. For bears, wait

Vega Trading

CL1!

Oil was dampened this week as we got a fresh round of fake peace-deal news. The market has changed a lot since Trump's inauguration. Fake news is much more frequent, and algos are reacting to these headlines more aggress

Vega Trading

US02Y

Despite Trump tweeting every 15 minutes this week to calm yields, it appears 4% is here to stay for US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield). The next natural target sits around 4.4%.

May 22, 2026

Vega Trading

US10Y

Chart update

Vega Trading

US10Y

Last week, I mentioned that the US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) multi-year downtrend resistance line is the only resistance global long-end yields have left. The market tried very hard to defend it this week, and we

May 16, 2026

Vega Trading

CL1!

Oil is back above 100, as expected. I called the local low when oil was dumped below 90 last week on fake peace-deal headlines. There is nothing new on the Iran front, as the Strait remains under Iran's control and there

May 15, 2026

Vega Trading

US10Y

(U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) closed right at the multi-year downtrend resistance line. This is perhaps the only real resistance global long-end yields have left. A sustained breach above opens the door to a test o

Vega Trading

US30Y

Trump must find a way to suppress yields next week; otherwise, the tide turns.

May 9, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) appears to be building a base around 17 as SPX (S&P 500) prints new ATHs.

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) managed to hold my 196 support before reversing and closing above the key 208 level on Friday. This is a very bullish signal. A sustained close above 208, and perhaps a rally from here, would suggest an end

Vega Trading

USDJPY

For USDJPY to initiate a self-reinforcing downward spiral, the BOJ must sustain a break below the 155.5 level for a few days. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Vega Trading

DXY

99 remains the key resistance. As long as DXY remains below 99, it stays supportive of equities and commodities. A breach above 99 suggests a probe into the 100 area.

Vega Trading

US30Y

Another failed attempt, stopped by fake peace-deal headlines. Trump can only play this trick for so long. I must give him credit for managing yields this well simply by manipulating media outlets with fake news. Momentum

Vega Trading

CL1!

O il was dumped on Wednesday following Axios fake news regarding a peace deal, only to rebound sharply and recoup half of its losses on the same day. A breach below 80 would suggest real progress toward a peace deal, whi

May 8, 2026

Vega Trading

SOXX

I had expected a pullback before the euphoria resumed in 1999 fashion, before eventually collapsing. But the market appears to need no break and has decided to run full speed. For bears, wait for confirmation before ente

Vega Trading

MAGS

After stalling around the 67 level for three weeks, MAGS (Magnificent 7) finally broke above the downtrend resistance line.

May 7, 2026

Vega Trading

USDJPY

For USDJPY to initiate a self-reinforcing downward spiral, the BOJ must sustain a break below the 155.5 level for a few days. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

May 5, 2026

Vega Trading

JP30Y

Speaking of rates, it is also worth noting that global long-end yields, including JP30Y (Japan 30-Year Yield), are rising rapidly and synchronously, as I expected. That is not a good sign.

May 2, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

I shorted NVDA (Nvidia) on Monday around the HOD but was stopped out at breakeven. As I noted in last week's Tactical Positioning, I expected this push to a new ATH to be nongenuine, and the ATH area would be a textbook

Vega Trading

USDJPY

Chart update

Vega Trading

USDJPY

Historically, Japan's FX interventions tend to come in waves, not as one-off events. If April 30 was indeed intervention, more operations may follow. We outline the repercussions of such intervention in the chart below.

Vega Trading

CL1!

Oil is edging higher as no progress is being made on a peace deal and Strait volume remains low. A breach below 98-100 opens the door to a test of the 81 level, though I think the odds of seeing this soon are very low, g

May 1, 2026

Vega Trading

SOXX

We shorted SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) at the top on Monday, only to be trailed out on Wednesday. Semi momentum remains exceptionally strong, as Friday marked a new ATH. As we have entered a new month, the Bollinger Bands a

Vega Trading

CL1!

Chart update

Apr 25, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) led the market higher, as I expected. Note that NVDA now faces resistance from its previous ATH. Given how overextended the semiconductor sector is, I do not believe this attempt to make a new ATH is genuin

Vega Trading

US30Y

Chart update

Vega Trading

US30Y

(U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) has made countless attempts to break above the downtrend resistance line over the past month. As the formation comes to an end, the clock is ticking, and the setup favors an upside bre

Vega Trading

US02Y

(U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) is back above 3.8%. If it manages to stay above this level for a few days, it is likely heading toward the recent high of 4%. This will likely be coupled with rising oil prices.

Apr 24, 2026

Vega Trading

MAGS

(Magnificent 7) struggles to break above 67 as expected. If price continues to stall, it risks heading back towards 63.

Apr 18, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

Very significant development in NVDA (Nvidia)'s price action, as it has broken above the key 196 resistance. As long as it holds this level, it could continue to lead the market higher.

Vega Trading

CL1!

The peace talks that took place last weekend failed, as I expected, but no escalation followed. We saw a big opening gap on Sunday night that pushed WTI above 105, but as de-escalation progressed, WTI closed in the low 8

Vega Trading

US02Y

(U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) broke below my key support level around 3.8% on Friday.

Apr 17, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

(Nifty 50) bounced off my 22K support and is now facing resistance around 24.4K. I expect price to stall here unless it can force a sustained break above 24.4K.

Vega Trading

SOXX

Semis led the move higher, just as we expected from the bellwether sector. Note that SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) is overextended on both the weekly and monthly charts. Such vertical moves never end well. Remember how we ide

Vega Trading

US10Y

Unless US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) moves back inside the triangle, momentum remains to the upside.

Vega Trading

MSFT

(Microsoft) bounced forcefully from the double bottom I identified previously.

Vega Trading

MAGS

I expect a MAGS (Magnificent 7) pullback from the 67 area.

Apr 11, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) posted a clean break below the key trendline support following the ceasefire deal. This structure is not supportive of my S&P 500 futures shorts. It must climb back above the trendline early n

Vega Trading

DXY

gapped down following the ceasefire deal. 99 remains the key level to watch, and DXY has struggled to post a decisive close above this level since the ceasefire deal. For now, it looks bearish. This supports equities

Vega Trading

CL1!

CL (WTI crude futures) posted a clean break last Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. It then tested my multi-year resistance around 117 before reversing sharply lower on t

Vega Trading

CL1!

Chart update

Apr 10, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

(Nifty 50) bounced off my 22K support.

Vega Trading

SOXX

If de-escalation is in order, semis should continue to lead higher, just as bellwether sectors usually do when markets emerge from a correction or bear market.

Vega Trading

XLF

(U.S. Financials ETF) is back above the key 50 level. If it manages to hold above it for the next few sessions, we should see it head higher.

Vega Trading

MSFT

(Microsoft) could be forming a double bottom, the inverse of the double top that led to its 40% decline over the past six months.

Apr 4, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

Unless VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) breaks below the uptrend line support from late last year, we're not out of the danger zone yet.

Vega Trading

NVDA

As warned, NVDA (Nvidia) left a fakeout before bouncing higher. This is common, especially for key names such as NVDA, which is the bellwether of the bull run, as bulls and algos will do their best to defend it. However,

Vega Trading

US30Y

(U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) left a fakeout before reversing lower back below resistance this week. It remains a key asset to monitor, as a confirmed breakout would bring devastating consequences for global equiti

Vega Trading

FTSE

(FTSE 100) reclaimed the major trendline and now sits around the horizontal resistance near 10.5K. If it fails here, we would likely see a retest, if not a break, of the major trendline. If it manages to break above

Vega Trading

CL1!

Chart update

Vega Trading

CL1!

CL (WTI crude futures) posted a clean break on Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. The market is finally growing tired of his lies. A clean break above the 116-117 level s

Vega Trading

US02Y

For US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield), 3.8% and 3.6% are the key support levels to watch in the short term, while 4% acts as resistance. Should yields start to grind higher from the current level, a retest of the recent

Apr 3, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

(Nifty 50) tested my 22K support, just as I expected weeks ago. I expect a bounce from here. A break below this level opens the door to a test of 20K.

Vega Trading

SOXX

(Semiconductor ETF) has reclaimed the major trendline, but it must hold above it for a few days to see further upside.

Vega Trading

XLF

(U.S. Financials ETF) is backtesting from below.

Vega Trading

GDX

(Gold Miners ETF) reclaimed 92, but it needs to stay above it for a few more days to confirm that the trend has reversed. If the war drags on, it would be bearish for gold in the ST, and therefore for GDX as well.

Mar 29, 2026

Vega Trading

GDX

(Gold Miners ETF) needs to climb above 92 to see more upside, and short-term support sits around 79, after which comes the major trendline support around 74.

Mar 28, 2026

Vega Trading

US30Y

(U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) has broken above resistance. If it doesn't fall back below it, the consequences could be devastating.

Vega Trading

FTSE

(FTSE 100) backtested the trendline and was rejected.

Vega Trading

CL1!

The 100 level remains a strong ST resistance that CL must break to sustain upside momentum. The next resistance sits around its recent high near 120. Meanwhile, a break below the recent low of 84 would most likely indica

Mar 27, 2026

Vega Trading

HTI

(Hang Seng Tech Index) is clinging to 4.74K for dear life. A clean break below this level opens the door to a test of 4.2K.

Vega Trading

SOXX

(Semiconductor ETF) must reclaim the trendline. Otherwise, the consequences could be devastating for the broader market, as semis are the bellwether sector of this bull run.

Vega Trading

HSI

backtested the lower bound and was rejected. If it fails to reclaim 25.3K, further downside is in play.

Vega Trading

PLTR

(Palantir) was rejected at the backtest around 155. If it doesn't reclaim 155, I would expect it to head lower to retest the recent low around 130, after which comes 100.

Vega Trading

US10Y

Yields worldwide continue to explode to the upside, as I expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples, especially for long-duration names suc

Vega Trading

MSFT

I first noted the bearish double-top pattern when MSFT (Microsoft) was trading above 500, and identified several exceptionally low-risk entry points on the way down. The next target sits around 340.

Mar 21, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

Volatility will explode once VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) breaks 28.

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) is the final missing piece.

Vega Trading

US30Y

Vega Trading

US02Y

Mar 20, 2026

Vega Trading

HSI

Chart update

Vega Trading

JP10Y

Yields worldwide, including JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield), continue to explode to the upside, as I expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples

Vega Trading

US10Y

Vega Trading

DXY

needs to sit above 100-101 for a few days to see more upside. Should it occur, I would expect a collapse in equities.

Vega Trading

CL1!

WTI is playing catch-up to the other benchmarks, and we should continue to see convergence as the war drags on. For now, 91 and 99-100 are acting as short-term support and resistance for WTI (CL). Unless it breaks below

Mar 19, 2026

Vega Trading

CL1!

Chart update

Vega Trading

CL1!

WTI (CL) has been lagging other crude benchmarks such as Brent, and especially Oman and Dubai crude. They tend to move in tandem and by similar magnitudes, but Oman and Dubai started to diverge on March 9, and Brent star

Mar 14, 2026

Vega Trading

NIFTY

As expected, NIFTY (Nifty 50) backtested and was rejected at the horizontal resistance line.

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

(Nikkei 225) retraced from the channel resistance.

Vega Trading

KOSPI

This bull run consists of two parts. The major one is AI hardware, namely chips, and the minor one is AI applications, such as PLTR (Palantir). KOSPI (Korea Composite Index), TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index), SOXX (Semicond

Mar 13, 2026

Vega Trading

US10Y

And this is not just the U.S. We have seen a sharp rise in 10y yields globally since the Iran conflict began, with the U.K. +53bp, Canada +38bp, Germany +32bp, Italy +52bp, Japan +12bp, Australia +30bp, South Korea +23bp

Vega Trading

DXY

Dollar rallied as I expected and is now trading around 100. This is a key level. If it breaks and does not reverse quickly, it could help the dollar march back toward 108, which is in line with my expectation of a global

Vega Trading

A quiet weekend could help oil open above 100 on Sunday night, and it could test last week's high of 120 early next week. If it escalates, we could see it test the ATH around 145, while de-escalation could cause it to ga

Vega Trading

US02Y

If the war drags on, we should continue to see US02Y (U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield) grind higher, forcing the Fed to hike and dampen growth. Or worse, if Trump forces cuts, the consequences will be even more dire when the

Mar 10, 2026

Vega Trading

CL1!

Crude failed at my resistance around 120 and found a ST bottom at my previous resistance of 95, which turned into support after the break. After Trump's tweeted that the war is ending soon, it broke lower and found suppo

Mar 9, 2026

Vega Trading

HTI

(Hang Seng Tech Index) rebounded from my support around 4740.

Vega Trading

SOXX

(Semiconductor ETF) rebounded from a trendline support.

Vega Trading

MAGS

(Magnificent 7) backtested the downtrend resistance again. Bulls must print a confirmed break above this trendline and the key 63 level before MAGS can edge higher.

Mar 8, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) remains above the line in the sand at 167. A break below this level unleashes the Kraken.

Mar 7, 2026

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

Stock markets worldwide have experienced a sharp rise over the past 12 to 24 months, and many of them have reached record extremes, just like the gold and silver frenzy back in January. NIKKEI (Nikkei 225) was among thos

Vega Trading

NIKKEI

Chart update

Mar 6, 2026

Vega Trading

CL1!

Crude has surged beyond my initial target of 85. As price goes vertical, a stop should be in place to protect your profits. A confirmed break above 85 opens the door to 100 to 110.

Mar 5, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

Vega Trading

CL1!

Crude is set to move higher. As price goes vertical, a stop should be in place to protect your profits.

Vega Trading

VIX

As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) remains above the uptrend line, I expect to see a volmageddon event later this year.

Mar 4, 2026

Vega Trading

HTI

I warned HTI (Hang Seng Tech Index) was heading lower last week. It's now sitting on a key support level. If it breaks, it opens the door for a retest of 4.2K.

Vega Trading

SOXX

We might have seen the top in SOXX (Semiconductor ETF), as the final leg does not require completion. If I am right, we should see it halved, which is the same magnitude of drawdown I am expecting from NDX.

Vega Trading

PLTR

(Palantir) is resilient to Friday's tech selloff as the narrative around its software being used by the U.S. military in the current conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues. If it doesn't fall below 155 and con

Mar 3, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

(Korea Composite Index) has continued to pull back since my warning on 02/26.

Vega Trading

CL1!

Crude hit and pushed beyond my 71 to 72 target. A break above 80 to 85 signals further upside toward 110 to 120.

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) exploded as I expected. But yesterday's move is nothing compared to the true volmageddon I expect once equities break.

Vega Trading

DXY

Next target is 100.

Feb 28, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) failed to close above the 11/20 high and retraced sharply over the last two sessions. Friday's selloff into the close was particularly worth noting, as most of the MAG7 (Magnificent 7) rallied into the clos

Feb 26, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) stays above this trendline, the risk of an explosive move remains.

Vega Trading

NVDA

(Nvidia) posted a widely expected earnings beat after the close yesterday. Bulls shouldn't get overexcited yet, as NVDA remains below the 11/20 high, the day after last quarter's earnings. That level has acted as re

Feb 25, 2026

Vega Trading

KOSPI

SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) monthly Bollinger Band is very extended. KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) and TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index) are also showing extremes. Note that both KOSPI and TAIEX are heavily concentrated in the

Vega Trading

HTI

(Hang Seng Tech Index) backtested and reversed from the uptrendline resistance.

Vega Trading

SOXX

(Semiconductor ETF) is very close to completing the pattern. SOXX monthly Bollinger Band is very extended. KOSPI and TAIEX are also showing extremes. Note that both KOSPI and TAIEX are heavily concentrated in the se

Vega Trading

PLTR

LTR (Palantir) risks heading much lower if it is rejected at the neckline.

Vega Trading

MAGS

The rally into an NVDA earnings beat helped MAGS (Magnificent 7) break above the resistance. However, I advise caution as most of the key names were sold heavily after earnings regardless of the results. MAGS must hold a

Feb 23, 2026

Vega Trading

XLF

(U.S. Financials ETF) broke below the key support around 51. If it fails to reclaim that level over the next few sessions, it risks going much, much lower.

Feb 20, 2026

Vega Trading

SOX

(Semiconductor Index), the bellwether sector, is close to a climax high.

Vega Trading

MAGS

Should MAGS (Magnificent 7) be rejected at 63, we should see more downside.

Vega Trading

CL1!

CL (WTI crude futures) backtested and held the major support around 65-66.

Feb 19, 2026

Vega Trading

CL1!

The U.S.-Iran situation is intensifying, with reports suggesting a strike as early as this weekend. A confirmed break above this level opens the door for the low 70s. And if that happens, it likely means war.

Vega Trading

DXY

Note that despite DXY breaking below the key support a few weeks back, it managed to reclaim it shortly after. On the daily chart, DXY broke above the triangle yesterday. If DXY doesn't fall back over the next few sessio

Feb 18, 2026

Vega Trading

XLF

(U.S. Financials ETF) bounced off the support zone as I expected.

Feb 14, 2026

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) continues to leave higher lows as it explodes to the upside.

Vega Trading

NVDA

167 is the line in the sand for NVDA (Nvidia), and for the broader market.

Vega Trading

HG1!

A running archive of HG (Copper Futures) views from Tactical Positioning.

Feb 13, 2026

Vega Trading

XLF

The breakdown in XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) doesn't bode well for equities. We already had the first U.S. bank failure of 2026 on January 30. I expect more later this year.

Vega Trading

MSFT

If MSFT (Microsoft) breaks below the 395 support line, next support is around 340.

Vega Trading

MAGS

The Magnificent 7 selloff continues as expected. By the end of every bull run, the bellwethers tend to lead the market lower by months, and that's exactly what MAGS (Magnificent 7) is showing. And despite the selloff alr

Feb 12, 2026

Vega Trading

PLTR

(Palantir) needs to reclaim above the uptrendline at around 140 in the next few sessions or it risks testing 100.

Vega Trading

MAGS

Equities continue to sell off, especially Tech and the Magnificent 7, as expected. Note that MAGS (Magnificent 7) confirmed a break below the key 63 support yesterday. I warned the other day that MAGS not participating i

Feb 5, 2026

Vega Trading

US30Y

I warned about long-end yields exploding to the upside back in 25Q4, and they're set to only grind higher.

Feb 4, 2026

Vega Trading

US10Y

I warned about long-end yields exploding to the upside back in 25Q4, and they're set to only grind higher.

Jan 29, 2026

Vega Trading

CL1!

CL (WTI crude futures) has reached my ST target at 65. If we get a clean break and confirmation above 66, 71 is the next target.

Jan 28, 2026

Vega Trading

MSFT

I mentioned a second short opportunity around the 470-480 area the other day. MSFT (Microsoft) failed to recapture the downtrend resistance line and got decimated after earnings after the close yesterday. Coincidence? I

Jan 27, 2026

Vega Trading

XLF

Weakness in XLF (U.S. Financials ETF), coupled with rising long-end yields, doesn't bode well for equities.

Vega Trading

VIX

(Cboe Volatility Index) found support at the uptrend line. A confirmed break above 18 could signal further upside. Brace for more volatility in the near term.

Vega Trading

CL1!

A confirmed break above 61.2 is required before entry, with a target of 65 and a stop loss at 60

Jan 26, 2026

Vega Trading

MSFT

(Microsoft) has been a profitable short for those who shorted at 475 and covered much lower. The recent rebound offered another shorting opportunity in the 470 to 480 area.

Jan 20, 2026

Vega Trading

JP30Y

(Japan 30-Year Yield) exploded higher, as I expected.

Vega Trading

JP10Y

(Japan 10-Year Yield) exploded higher, as I expected.

Jan 17, 2026

Vega Trading

MSFT

Chart update

Jan 16, 2026

Vega Trading

NVDA

I am placing a stop loss to the NVDA (Nvidia) short position at breakeven, and setting a target price of 168 and 75.

Jan 15, 2026

Vega Trading

US10Y

Yields continue to rise alongside Gold and Silver. Warning signs cannot be more dire.

Vega Trading

MAGS

(Magnificent 7) remains under pressure even as SPX printed an ATH. If it breaks below 63, it could get ugly.

Jan 10, 2026

Vega Trading

XAGUSD

A running archive of Silver views from Tactical Positioning.

Dec 22, 2025

Vega Trading

JP10Y

Yields continue to rise alongside Gold and Silver. For JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield), the warning signs cannot be more dire.

Dec 18, 2025

Vega Trading

NVDA

167 is the line of sand

Dec 12, 2025

Vega Trading

NVDA

Whatever sparks the bull run will eventually bring it to an end.

Vega Trading

NVDA

Chart update

Nov 19, 2025

Vega Trading

BTC

A running archive of BTC (Bitcoin/Bitcoin perpetual contract) views from Tactical Positioning.

Nov 6, 2025

Vega Trading

MAGS

Mag7, broke below the trendline support