Research update

A running archive of KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) views from Tactical Positioning.

KOSPISOXX (Semiconductor ETF) monthly Bollinger Band is very extended. KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) and TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index) are also showing extremes. Note that both KOSPI and TAIEX are heavily concentrated in the semiconductor sector.

KOSPIKOSPI (Korea Composite Index) has continued to pull back since my warning on 02/26.

KOSPIStock markets worldwide have experienced a sharp rise over the past 12 to 24 months, and many of them have reached record extremes, just like the gold and silver frenzy back in January. KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) was among those extremes. Such extremes always precede devastating resolutions, and some of them are already unfolding.

KOSPIThis bull run consists of two parts. The major one is AI hardware, namely chips, and the minor one is AI applications, such as PLTR (Palantir).

KOSPI (Korea Composite Index), TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index), SOXX (Semiconductor ETF), and NVDA (Nvidia) are the bellwethers of the major part of this bull run.

The music stops when they break below the key support levels shown in the charts.

KOSPIKOSPI (Korea Composite Index) has lost the steep rising trendline and is now bouncing back into 8.1K. That is where the bounce has to prove itself. A sustained move back above 8.1K would stabilize the tape. Failure there keeps 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below if selling resumes.

KOSPIKOSPI has lost the steep rising trendline and is now bouncing back into 8.1K. That is where the bounce has to prove itself.A sustained move back above 8.1K would stabilize the tape. Failure there keeps 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below if selling resumes.

KOSPILast week I said failure at 8.1K would leave 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below. That path played out almost exactly. KOSPI failed at 8.1K, broke 7.5K, and tested 7.1K before bouncing.

KOSPI now needs to reclaim 7.5K and hold above it. That would stabilize the tape and put 8.1K back in play. Failure at 7.5K keeps 7.1K exposed. A confirmed break below 7.1K opens the door to 5.8K.

KOSPI

KOSPIKOSPI is now moving through the air pocket toward 5.8K. I expect the Korean market to rebound later this week.

KOSPISince we called the bottom in the Korean market in July, it has rallied roughly 30%.

KOSPI has rebounded from our support and is heading toward 7.1K. A sustained move above 7.1K puts 7.5K back in play, followed by 8.1K. If it fails at 7.1K, we may see a retest of the major ascending trendline around 5.9K.