Research update

A running archive of NIFTY (Nifty 50) views from Tactical Positioning.

NIFTYAs expected, NIFTY (Nifty 50) backtested and was rejected at the horizontal resistance line.

NIFTYNIFTY (Nifty 50) tested my 22K support, just as I expected weeks ago. I expect a bounce from here. A break below this level opens the door to a test of 20K.

NIFTYNIFTY (Nifty 50) bounced off my 22K support.

NIFTYNIFTY (Nifty 50) bounced off my 22K support and is now facing resistance around 24.4K. I expect price to stall here unless it can force a sustained break above 24.4K.

NIFTYNIFTY (Nifty 50) bounced off my 22K support and is now running into resistance around 24.4K. A decisive break above 24.4K would reopen the upside path, while failure there keeps the market range-bound and vulnerable to another pullback toward support.

NIFTYIndia has been stuck for a reason. No real AI beta, expensive valuation, foreign money rotating elsewhere, and RBI still constrained by oil, rupee weakness, and inflation risk. The market is not getting the liquidity tailwind it needs.

NIFTY (Nifty 50) needs a sustained above 24.34K for further upside. As long as 22K holds, downside is contained.

NIFTYNIFTY (Nifty 50) bounced from the April lows, but 24.3K is still capping the move. Since the war started, crude has been the macro variable that matters most for India.

As Hormuz traffic improves and the oil risk premium fades, the odds of a sustained push above 24.3K improve. Without that break, upside remains capped, and failure at 24.3K keeps 22.1K-22.0K in play.

NIFTYNIFTY failed again at 24.34K, as expected. A sustained break above it reopens the upside path. Failure there keeps the index range-bound between 22K and 24K.

NIFTYNIFTY failed at 24.3K again and has pulled back to the ascending trendline, once again validating my 22.1K-24.3K range. As long as the trendline holds, another test of 24.3K remains in play.

A sustained break below it puts 22K-22.1K back in play. NIFTY still needs a sustained break above 24.4K to open further upside. Surging oil prices do not bode well for NIFTY. Unless oil rolls over, the index is likely to head lower.