Research update

A running archive of XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) views from Tactical Positioning.

XLFWeakness in XLF (U.S. Financials ETF), coupled with rising long-end yields, doesn't bode well for equities.

XLFThe breakdown in XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) doesn't bode well for equities. We already had the first U.S. bank failure of 2026 on January 30. I expect more later this year.

XLFXLF (U.S. Financials ETF) bounced off the support zone as I expected.

XLFXLF (U.S. Financials ETF) broke below the key support around 51. If it fails to reclaim that level over the next few sessions, it risks going much, much lower.

XLFXLF (U.S. Financials ETF) is backtesting from below.

XLFXLF (U.S. Financials ETF) is back above the key 50 level. If it manages to hold above it for the next few sessions, we should see it head higher.

XLFXLF (U.S. Financials ETF) is rallying ahead of an anticipated hawkish Fed and a higher-for-longer rate environment. That is not a good sign for long-duration assets.

XLFXLF is testing its previous high around 56.4, leaving a potential double top in play.

The rally over the past few weeks is consistent with the market pricing a more hawkish Fed path, typically a tailwind for financials. A sustained break above 56.4 would invalidate the double top and signal that the market is pricing further hikes and a Fed that no longer treats the war as a temporary external shock whose effects can be quickly reversed, regardless of Warsh's message at the meeting.