Research update

A running archive of HG (Copper Futures) views from Tactical Positioning.

HG1!We need a confirmed break above the upper trendline to see more upside in copper.

HG1!Copper has gone nowhere since the beginning of the year. As I mentioned before, it's sitting in no man's land.

For bulls, a break above the upper channel signals significantly more upside, while a break below the horizontal support and mid channel around 5.56 opens the door for a retest of the lower channel.

HG1!Copper is consolidating in the orange box. A break below 5.55 opens the door for a test of the lower channel around 4.9.

HG1!If copper doesn't reclaim the key 5.55 level in the next few sessions, it's heading to test the lower channel around 4.9.

HG1!Copper failed at the former box support, now turned resistance, again on Friday. Unless it reclaims the key 5.55 resistance, we should see it head lower in the coming weeks.

HG1!After breaching the lower bound of the box support, copper has struggled to reclaim it. Unless it reclaims the key 5.55 resistance, momentum remains to the downside.

HG1!Copper is tangling around the key 5.55 level. This could be a backtest from below, and I'd expect a continuation of the selloff if price starts to reverse from this level.

If it manages to hold above this level and starts to climb higher, it would turn the bearish structure bullish.

HG1!After backtesting the key 5.55 level from above earlier this week, it has put in a decisive thrust higher.

For now, the structure has turned from bearish to bullish. Unless we see an escalation in the Middle East, copper is set to head higher to test the upper channel.

HG1!Copper continued its upward momentum and is heading toward the upper channel.

HG1!Copper remains stuck in the box range I identified months ago. A breach above opens the door to a test of the upper channel.

HG1!Copper is heading toward the upper end of the channel.

HG1!Copper tested the upper channel, as I expected. The sharp rise in yields on Friday exerted heavy pressure on the commodity complex. Despite strong fundamentals, copper was not exempt.

For now, this is not a confirmed break above the upper channel.

HG1!Copper backtested my 6.11 support.

Fundamentals remain strong. A confirmed breach above the upper channel could lead to a more vertical move.

HG1!Copper is struggling to break above the upper channel. I would not chase unless it confirms the strength with a sustained breakout.

Fundamentals remain strong, but price still needs to prove it.

HG1!As long as 6.11 holds, copper can attempt another push toward the upper channel. A sustained break below 6.11 would turn this into a failed breakout and open the door to a deeper pullback toward the channel midline. For bulls, wait for a sustained close above 6.11 or a confirmed breakout above the upper channel.