Research update

A running archive of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index/futures) views from Tactical Positioning.

DXYNote that despite DXY breaking below the key support a few weeks back, it managed to reclaim it shortly after. On the daily chart, DXY broke above the triangle yesterday. If DXY doesn't fall back over the next few sessions, I could see it push higher, potentially back toward 99-100.

DXYNext target is 100.

DXYDollar rallied as I expected and is now trading around 100. This is a key level. If it breaks and does not reverse quickly, it could help the dollar march back toward 108, which is in line with my expectation of a global market meltdown where the dollar remains the only safe asset.

DXYDXY needs to sit above 100-101 for a few days to see more upside. Should it occur, I would expect a collapse in equities.

DXYDXY gapped down following the ceasefire deal. 99 remains the key level to watch, and DXY has struggled to post a decisive close above this level since the ceasefire deal. For now, it looks bearish. This supports equities and gold in the short term.

DXY99 remains the key resistance. As long as DXY remains below 99, it stays supportive of equities and commodities. A breach above 99 suggests a probe into the 100 area.

DXYThe dollar jumped on rate-hike expectations on Friday. Next stop is 100.2, followed by 101. Above that, the door opens to repricing across all asset classes.

DXYThe dollar faced resistance at 100.2, as expected. Yields remain the main driver of recent dollar movement, and next week's FOMC is critical as the market gets the first official encounter between the new Fed chair and inflation.

DXYDXY broke above the 100.2 resistance I flagged months ago and is now pressing into the next resistance zone around 101. This is the level that matters now.

As long as the dollar holds above 100.2, the breakout remains valid. A sustained break above 101 would open the door to broader repricing across assets, especially with yields still driving recent dollar strength.

Bulls need to defend 100.2 on any backtest. A break back below would turn this into another fakeout, but for now the dollar has reclaimed the level it needed.

DXYDXY reclaimed 100.2 and is now holding above the uptrendline support around 101.15.

As long as DXY holds the uptrendline support, the path remains higher toward 102, followed by the larger downtrend resistance. A break below 101.15 would be the first warning. A sustained loss of 100.2 would turn the whole move into another fakeout and put 99 back in play. Until then, do not fight the dollar bid.

DXYThe dollar rallied as rates moved higher and equities sold off. DXY has now broken above the descending channel and is set to retest the prior high around 101.7. A sustained break above 101.7 opens a large vacuum above.

DXY