Research update

A running archive of NIKKEI (Nikkei 225) views from Tactical Positioning.

NIKKEIStock markets worldwide have experienced a sharp rise over the past 12 to 24 months, and many of them have reached record extremes, just like the gold and silver frenzy back in January. NIKKEI (Nikkei 225) was among those extremes.

Such extremes always precede devastating resolutions, and some of them are already unfolding.

NIKKEI

NIKKEINIKKEI (Nikkei 225) retraced from the channel resistance.

NIKKEIIf NIKKEI (Nikkei 225) fails to hold 63.8K support, it risks testing the low 60K area in the coming days. Bulls need to defend this level to keep the structure intact.

NIKKEINIKKEI (Nikkei 225) held the 63.8K support I flagged and ripped higher.

As long as the rising trendline holds, bulls remain in control and the path of least resistance stays higher.

The macro setup still favors Japan equities for now. BOJ hiked, but USDJPY still broke above 160, which tells us the rate gap remains too wide and yen weakness is still supporting the tape. A break below the rising trendline would be the first warning that the move is losing force.

NIKKEINIKKEI (Nikkei 225) is pulling back into the rising trendline after a strong June move. The trend is stretched, but not broken yet. The rising trendline is the first line in the sand. As long as it holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below it opens the door to a backtest of 63.8K.

NIKKEIAs long as the trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the prior high around 73K as the next test. A sustained break below the trendline shifts the path toward 63.8K.