Research update

A running archive of JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) views from Tactical Positioning.

JP10YYields continue to rise alongside Gold and Silver. For JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield), the warning signs cannot be more dire.

JP10YJP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) exploded higher, as I expected.

JP10YYields worldwide, including JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield), continue to explode to the upside, as I expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples, especially for long-duration names such as the M7, including your favorite, NVDA (Nvidia).

JP10YJapan rates are still in a structural repricing, but the first cooling phase has started. JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) ripped almost one-way into 2.8%, then failed to extend and is now chopping lower around 2.6-2.7%. That is a pause, not a confirmed reversal. 2.5% is the line in the sand. As long as JP10Y holds above 2.5%, the BOJ normalization trade is still alive and another push toward 2.8-2.9% stays on the table. Lose 2.5%, and the move turns into a deeper mean-reversion setup toward 2.3%.

JP10YJP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) has reclaimed the late-June range and is back pressing the prior high around 2.8%. A sustained close above 2.8% keeps the upside path open and puts 2.9% in play. If 2.8% rejects again, the first downside level is 2.6%.