Research update

A running archive of VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) views from Tactical Positioning.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) found support at the uptrend line. A confirmed break above 18 could signal further upside. Brace for more volatility in the near term.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) continues to leave higher lows as it explodes to the upside.

VIX · —As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) stays above this trendline, the risk of an explosive move remains.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) exploded as I expected. But yesterday's move is nothing compared to the true volmageddon I expect once equities break.

VIX · —As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) remains above the uptrend line, I expect to see a volmageddon event later this year.

VIX · —Volatility will explode once VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) breaks 28.

VIX · —Unless VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) breaks below the uptrend line support from late last year, we're not out of the danger zone yet.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) posted a clean break below the key trendline support following the ceasefire deal. This structure is not supportive of my S&P 500 futures shorts. It must climb back above the trendline early next week; otherwise, we face an increasingly strong buffer against equity downside.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) appears to be building a base around 17 as SPX (S&P 500) prints new ATHs.

VIX · —Volatility should explode exponentially if VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) breaks above 22 in the coming sessions.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) filled the gap around 23 before reversing sharply lower. The immediate upside signal has been rejected for now.

VIX · —VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) is starting to wake up. Daily has broken above the downtrend resistance, which is the first warning that volatility suppression is weakening. This is not full confirmation yet, but the chart is no longer cleanly capped.

21.6 remains the level that matters. A sustained break above 21.6 would confirm the move and open the door for volatility to pick up quickly. If equities lose support while VIX holds above the broken downtrend, volatility should expand fast. If VIX slips back below the broken trendline, this becomes another failed spike.

VIX · —

VIX · —Volatility is trying to wake up, but it has not broken the structure yet. 14.2 remains the line in the sand on the downside. As long as VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) holds above that level, volatility compression has limits. A move back above 21.6 would be the first real warning that the tape is starting to price stress again. Above 21.6, the door opens to 28.3.

VIX · —VIX is at its lowest level since January. Most summers are quiet. As long as the war does not escalate back to March levels and semis hold key support, this one could be no different. The 14 area is likely to be the floor for VIX.

VIX · —VIX continues to grind higher from the July lows. As long as oil stays elevated, I expect that trend to continue, with 21.6 as the next test.

VIX · —VIX is approaching the key 14.2 support. I expect VIX to bottom around this level.