Research update

A running archive of HSI (Hang Seng Index/futures) views from Tactical Positioning.

HSI

HSIHSI backtested the lower bound and was rejected. If it fails to reclaim 25.3K, further downside is in play.

HSIHSI lost 25.25K, the floor of the prior range, and the bounce from below failed right at that level. That is a failed backtest.

Until HSI reclaims 25.25K, the breakdown stays valid and the path of least resistance remains lower. The China/HK tape is still not getting paid for the global AI bid. This is old China beta, not leadership.

A sustained close above 25.25K would put HSI back inside the range. Failure there keeps pressure to the downside.

HSIHSI broke down hard after failing to reclaim 25.25K. That level has turned from support into resistance, and the move has now flushed straight into the 22.55K support zone. This is a critical support level and I expect a bounce from here. If 22.55K fails, the breakdown opens another leg lower. Bulls need a sharp defense here.

HSIHSI has stalled below the 25.2K resistance. A sustained close above 25.2K opens the door to 27.3K. Unless HSI clears 25.2K, the rebound remains vulnerable. Another rejection puts 22.5K back in focus.