Research update

A running archive of CL (WTI crude futures) views from Tactical Positioning.

CL1!  A confirmed break above 61.2 is required before entry, with a target of 65 and a stop loss at 60

CL1!  CL (WTI crude futures) has reached my ST target at 65. If we get a clean break and confirmation above 66, 71 is the next target.

CL1!  The U.S.-Iran situation is intensifying, with reports suggesting a strike as early as this weekend.

A confirmed break above this level opens the door for the low 70s. And if that happens, it likely means war.

CL1!  CL (WTI crude futures) backtested and held the major support around 65-66.

CL1!  Crude hit and pushed beyond my 71 to 72 target.

A break above 80 to 85 signals further upside toward 110 to 120.

CL1!  Crude is set to move higher. As price goes vertical, a stop should be in place to protect your profits.

CL1!  Crude has surged beyond my initial target of 85.

As price goes vertical, a stop should be in place to protect your profits. A confirmed break above 85 opens the door to 100 to 110.

CL1!  Crude failed at my resistance around 120 and found a ST bottom at my previous resistance of 95, which turned into support after the break.

After Trump's tweeted that the war is ending soon, it broke lower and found support at my previous resistance around 80-85.

If the war escalates in the coming days or the market realizes it is not ending soon, we should grind back toward the recent high.

A confirmed break above 95 signals more upside, while a confirmed break below 80-85 signals more downside. I think this dip will be bought, as I doubt Trump will pull a full TACO on Iran.

CL  A quiet weekend could help oil open above 100 on Sunday night, and it could test last week's high of 120 early next week.

If it escalates, we could see it test the ATH around 145, while de-escalation could cause it to gap down toward 80.

CL1!  WTI (CL) has been lagging other crude benchmarks such as Brent, and especially Oman and Dubai crude.

They tend to move in tandem and by similar magnitudes, but Oman and Dubai started to diverge on March 9, and Brent started to diverge this Monday. This is because the impact of oil shortages takes time to spread, and those closest geographically feel it first.

If the war drags on for the next few months, we should see more convergence as inventories run dry.

For now, Brent is heading toward last Monday's high, and 99 to 100 remains a key level that WTI (CL) must break decisively to see more upside.

CL1!

CL1!  WTI is playing catch-up to the other benchmarks, and we should continue to see convergence as the war drags on.

For now, 91 and 99-100 are acting as short-term support and resistance for WTI (CL). Unless it breaks below 91, momentum remains to the upside.

CL1!  The 100 level remains a strong ST resistance that CL must break to sustain upside momentum.

The next resistance sits around its recent high near 120. Meanwhile, a break below the recent low of 84 would most likely indicate real progress in a ceasefire deal.

CL1!  CL (WTI crude futures) posted a clean break on Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. The market is finally growing tired of his lies.

A clean break above the 116-117 level should open the door to a test of the previous ATH around 140, after which comes 180-200.

This is most likely to happen if the war drags on for another month or two, as even the major oil reserve countries start running out of reserves. On the downside, a break below 100 could signal a change in direction.

CL1!

CL1!  CL (WTI crude futures) posted a clean break last Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night.

It then tested my multi-year resistance around 117 before reversing sharply lower on the temporary ceasefire deal. It is now sitting on major support as the world watches the negotiations this weekend.

A failure to reopen the Strait will send crude back to test the major resistance around 117, after which comes 140, and then 180-200.

If a reopening of the Strait is agreed upon and put on a clear timetable, CL will start heading back into the 80s.

CL1!

CL1!  The peace talks that took place last weekend failed, as I expected, but no escalation followed.

We saw a big opening gap on Sunday night that pushed WTI above 105, but as de-escalation progressed, WTI closed in the low 80s on Friday.

In my last Tactical Positioning note, published just before the peace talks, I outlined two possible paths for WTI, and it appears that it has chosen the downward one.

It is now hanging on to the 81 support level. Once it breaks below that level, we should see a gradual decline into the low 70s.

CL1!

CL1!  Oil is edging higher as no progress is being made on a peace deal and Strait volume remains low.

A breach below 98-100 opens the door to a test of the 81 level, though I think the odds of seeing this soon are very low, given that Iran will give up neither its nuclear program nor its control of the Strait.

A breach above the 115-117 area opens the door to 140.

CL1!Oil was dumped on Wednesday following Axios fake news regarding a peace deal, only to rebound sharply and recoup half of its losses on the same day.

CL1!  Oil is back above 100, as expected. I called the local low when oil was dumped below 90 last week on fake peace-deal headlines.

There is nothing new on the Iran front, as the Strait remains under Iran's control and there is no sign of real progress on a peace deal.

Inventories are depleted in many countries, and the remaining inventories are being drawn down at a worrying pace.

I continue to expect a retest of the recent highs around 115-120. A break above 118-120 opens the door to 140. A break below 90 opens the door to a test of the low 80s. A break below 80 would suggest real progress toward a peace deal.

CL1!  Oil was dampened this week as we got a fresh round of fake peace-deal news. The market has changed a lot since Trump's inauguration. Fake news is much more frequent, and algos are reacting to these headlines more aggressively.

On technicals, the triangle formation is coming to an end, likely around mid-June. We will likely see an explosive move from there.

If we do not get a deal by then, the path is likely to the upside, and 115-120 remains the iron wall. If we do get a real deal, oil will first test the low 80s before breaching that level by year-end.

CL1!  We were expecting an explosive move in oil as the triangle came to an end. Price resolved lower, but the move is not being confirmed by the physical market.

Futures are down this week on U.S.-Iran peace-deal headlines, even as crude and product inventories are being drained at a historic pace. Gasoline and other physical products remain elevated.

Three months into the war, I see nothing that changes that setup. The physical market is still not confirming the futures drawdown, so I would be careful calling this a clean fundamental bearish break.

That said, the technical signal has clearly weakened. The majority of oil-related tickers broke down early this week, and subsequent price action has continued lower as expected from the charts. Tactically, the tape stays bearish unless those breakdown levels are reclaimed, but I would not chase the move lower unless physical products start confirming it.

CL (WTI crude futures) closed below lower trendline support on Tuesday and continued to edge lower through the second half of the week. The 80 area is now the last line of defense. A confirmed breach below 80 would suggest real progress toward a peace deal.

CL  Oil bounced from trendline support around 87, but it remains contained as inventories are drained at a record pace to offset the ongoing supply shock. The administration keeps pushing fake-news headlines to create enough hopium for the market to digest.

The triangle should resolve by mid-July at the latest. A clean close above triangle resistance would trigger a violent bullish breakout and push inflation beyond the 2020-2021 episode. A clean close below triangle support would open the door to a test of the low 80s.

As mentioned repeatedly, regardless of headlines from either side, as long as oil remains above 80, it suggests no real progress has been made on a peace deal.

CL1!  CL (WTI crude futures) lost the second triangle support this week.

It must reclaim that level in the next few sessions; otherwise, it is likely heading toward 80.

CL1!  WTI technicals are weaker than BZ's and it needs more heavy lifting to reclaim the lost structure.

CL1!  Crude has now round-tripped the geopolitical spike. Brent and WTI are both pressing the lower end of the descending channel, so this is where a relief bounce can start, but it is not guaranteed.

The bigger structure is still lower highs unless price can get back above the channel midpoint. The first test sits around 80. Until crude gets back above that level, the bounce is tactical, not a trend change.

CL1!  WTI shares almost the same structure as BZ. The main difference is that WTI trades at a discount to Brent and should move less in dollar terms during limited escalation. If the Middle East blows up again, BZ and CL should rise in tandem by roughly the same amount.