Research update

A running archive of US30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) views from Tactical Positioning.

US30YI warned about long-end yields exploding to the upside back in 25Q4, and they're set to only grind higher.

US30YYields worldwide continue to explode to the upside, as I expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples, especially for long-duration names.

US30YUS30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) has broken above resistance. If it doesn't fall back below it, the consequences could be devastating.

US30YUS30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) left a fakeout before reversing lower back below resistance this week. It remains a key asset to monitor, as a confirmed breakout would bring devastating consequences for global equities.

US30YUS30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) has made countless attempts to break above the downtrend resistance line over the past month. As the formation comes to an end, the clock is ticking, and the setup favors an upside breakout.

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US30YAnother failed attempt, stopped by fake peace-deal headlines. Trump can only play this trick for so long. I must give him credit for managing yields this well simply by manipulating media outlets with fake news. Momentum remains to the upside unless we see real progress on a peace deal.

US30YTrump must find a way to suppress yields next week; otherwise, the tide turns.

US30YWe have seen repeated attempts and fakeouts around key resistance, and these levels are being attacked and defended for one simple reason: they matter for the bond market and for every leveraged asset sitting on top of it.

A sustained breakout in US30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) would release destructive force across highly leveraged equities.

US30YUS30Y (U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield) failed again around 5% and is now testing uptrend support.

The setup remains binary. If US30Y gets back above 5%, the bond market releases pressure again and long-duration equities are back in trouble. If US30Y breaks the uptrend, the immediate rate-pressure trade cools off. For now, the long end is still trapped, and the next break decides the trade.

US30YUS30Y bounced hard after testing the rising trendline and is now back near 5% resistance. A sustained close above 5% reopens the path toward the prior highs. If 5% rejects again, the risk is another pullback toward the rising trendline.

US30YUS30Y has already reclaimed the ascending trendline and pushed through 5%. Hold above 5% and 5.2% is next.

US30YAs long as US30Y holds above 5.2%, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained move back below 5.2% puts the ascending trendline back in play.

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