Research update

A running archive of Gold views from Tactical Positioning.

XAUUSDGold and silver continue to outperform. I still see gold ultimately working higher toward 5,000 and silver toward 100.

Historically, gold tends to outperform both before and after crises, but during crisis it can trade more like a risk asset, often dipping alongside equities during sharp drawdowns.

This cycle may not be any different.

XAUUSDBreakout level at 4530 is acting as support for now.

XAUUSDBoth gold and silver have nearly hit our targets of 5k and 100, respectively.

Gold is now running into generational resistance around 5k. Both gold and silver saw minor pullbacks a few hours ago. That said, this does not mean the frenzy in the commodity complex is over.

I've mentioned this a couple of times: gold tends to outperform pre crisis and post crisis, but not during a crisis.

In other words, gold's rally can continue until equities start to collapse.

I'd tighten stops on gold and silver as the move gets steeper.

XAUUSDGold printed higher highs, while silver only printed lower highs.

It could be an early sign of fatigue.

XAUUSDGC open interest dropped significantly yesterday as price spiked. They tend to go in tandem. Divergence like this usually signals the beginning of a consolidation phase. The lag between the drop in open interest and the final price top varied in the past 24 months for gold. Normally, prices react immediately to such changes.

XAUUSDGold sold off to tag our 4.6K target, then bounced and tried to reclaim 4.8K.

That level was key support before it broke, and it acted as resistance during Asia hours.

GOLDGold pulled back as we expected at the 5.1K level.

A confirmed break above this level is key for further upside.

The next few sessions are important, as a confirmed break below 4.9K support opens the door for a retest of the trendline around 4.5K.

XAUUSDNeedless to say, our call on the 5.1K gold resistance was spot on.

This level remains the key one to reclaim. Otherwise, downside is likely.

XAUUSDGold finally cleared the 5.1K resistance on a hotter than expected PPI, a much weaker than expected GDP print, and the Supreme Court's ruling that most of Trump's 2025 tariffs are illegal.

If gold holds 5.1K, it should grind toward 5.25K, then possibly pull back to retest 5.1K.

The next major resistance sits around 5.4K.

XAUUSDGold pulled back precisely from the 5.25K resistance.

XAUUSDGold pulled back precisely from the 5.25K resistance and found support right at our 5093 level.

XAUUSDGold pulled back from the major resistance around 5.4K as expected.

Silver continues to lag gold, as it couldn't hold above the key 90 level for even half a day and has now retraced back below it.

I warned this repeatedly in January, but it's worth saying again: gold tends to outperform pre and post crisis, and trades like a risk asset during a crisis.

As equities get ever closer to the breaking point, once the floodgates open, nothing survives, including gold.

The only thing that can go up is USD/DXY, and perhaps oil if the conflict escalates.

Gold pulled back precisely from our 5414 resistance.

XAUUSDA break above 5.4K opens the door for a retest of the ATH around 5.6K, and a break below the lower channel support opens the door for a retest of the major trendline around 4.7K.

XAUUSDThe lower channel support has continued to hold over the past few days.

Gold's technicals haven't changed.

A break below the lower channel support opens the door for a retest of the major trendline around 4.7K.

Conversely, a break above 5.4K opens the door for a retest of the ATH at 5.6K.

XAUUSDGold broke below the lower channel support and is holding on for dear life around 5K, which is the last support before we see it dumped toward 4.7K.

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XAUUSDGold was dumped to 4750 overnight, where I called the bottom.

Gold rallied 30 handles over the next 20 minutes, but it quickly reversed, and we closed at breakeven.

I reopened at 4705, where gold rallied another 30 handles in just 10 minutes, yet it reversed again, and we were forced to close at breakeven once more.

Note that our two failed attempts saw decisive yet unsustained bounces, and so far, the price action does not look rosy, so be cautious.

For those still in the trade, a stop is paramount.

I warned about this selloff when gold was trading above 5.3K back on 03/03. I also warned countless times since the beginning of the year that gold underperforms during a crisis.

Now it sits right on this critical support. This trendline has acted as support for the last six months.

But if we get a clean break below this level, gold should head much lower.

XAUUSDGold backtested the major trendline.

If it doesn't reclaim above this trendline in the next few sessions, it'd be a confirmed bearish signal, which could lead to more downside with the next support sitting around 4.2-4.3K if 4.5K does not hold.

XAUUSDGold breached the key support zone around 4700-4750, after which we saw a sharp dive into the 4.5K support level.

If gold reclaims 4.5K, we could see a solid rally back to retest the trendline around 4750.

Otherwise, we could see a deeper dive into the 4.2-4.3K zone, with final support around 4K.

XAUUSDAfter breaching below the trendline support around 4.7-4.75K, gold entered freefall and found a bottom at 4.1K, 100 handles above the major trendline support.

Gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis, but not during one.

This played out very well for us, as we were able to both catch the rally all the way to the very top and short at the very top.

I also warned once again about an imminent selloff when gold rallied back to 5.4K.

Note that 4K is very, very important for gold to sustain any upward move.

A clean break below it would be devastating for gold.

XAUUSDAfter a capitulation around 4.1K, gold rebounded sharply, only to find resistance at the trendline resistance around 4.8K.

For gold to rip higher, it must climb above 4.8K, and even more favorably, above the dotted trendline resistance.

XAUUSDGold faces significant resistance around the 4770 level.

It has attempted to thrust higher since Wednesday, but could not hold above 4770 into the close.

A clean break above this key resistance will open the door to more upside.

If it starts to reverse from here, the major trendline around 4.1K comes into play.

XAUUSDGold reclaimed the 4770 resistance following de-escalation news and has backtested 4770 as support from above.

As long as this level holds, we could see it head toward the next major resistance, which is 5K.

XAUUSDGold has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, has breached the 4770 support, and is now hanging on to the 4660 support level.

A break below this level opens the door to a retest of 4.4K, after which comes 4.1K.

On the upside, gold must reclaim 4770 to pick up any momentum toward 5K, which is a significant resistance.

XAUUSDGold remains range-bound between 4500 and 4840, with 4650 and 4770 switching between resistance and support.

For gold to head higher, it must reclaim 4770 and the previous high of 4840, after which we could see an attempt to test 5k.

Higher oil prices -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on gold, and vice versa.

XAUUSDGold remains range-bound between 4500 and 4840, and our levels continue to act as precise resistance and support.

Higher oil prices -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on gold, and vice versa.

We saw gold freefall on Friday as yields rose sharply.

As yields break out above multi-year resistance, I expect continued pressure on commodities.

A break below 4.4k opens the door to a test of the major trendline around 4.2k.

XAUUSDGold rebounded swiftly from our 4.4K support and remains range-bound between 4.4K and 4.66K.

The reversal was largely driven by the reversal in yields, as the market gets a new peace-deal headline every 15 minutes.

I expect the inverse correlation between gold/silver and yields to continue.

A breach below 4.4K opens the door to a test of the major trendline around 4.2K.

Until then, gold is still boxed in.

XAUUSDGold broke below the key 4.4K support that had kept it afloat for the past 6 months.

Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, the long-expected steep selloff in semis, and front-running into the next FOMC drove yields sharply higher and strengthened the dollar, pressuring gold.

Gold is now targeting the major trendline around 4.2K, with 3.9K next if that breaks.

I would refrain from catching the falling knife here, as other highly correlated assets still point in an unfavorable direction for gold.

XAUUSDGold broke the key 4.4K support, and we warned that further weakness was imminent.

We also warned bulls not to catch the falling knife from that level.

That was the right call.

Gold was dumped another $300/oz at one point, only to recoup most of the move after a timely headline.

Now gold is sitting right at its major trendline, so the next few sessions are critical.

A clean break below this trendline would put 3.9K back in play.

On the upside, bulls need to reclaim 4.4K.

XAUUSDGold failed to reclaim the key 4.4K level and was rejected below the broken structure.

The tape remains weak.

On the weekly chart, gold is still sitting above the major 4.0K-3.9K support zone, but the daily structure is weak.

Bulls need to reclaim 4.4K.

A clean break below 4.0K opens the door to 3.9K.

If 3.9K fails, the next major support sits much lower around 3.43K.

For now, I would not chase upside unless gold reclaims the broken 4.4K level.

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XAUUSDGold bounced from our 4K support zone.

XAUUSDGold bounced from our 3.9K-4K support and is trying to stabilize. As long as 4K holds, downside pressure is contained and gold can push back toward 4.4K. A sustained close above 4.4K opens the door to a larger rebound. Lose 3.9K-4K, the next major support sits around 3.7K, followed by 3.4K.

XAUUSDIf the AI bubble bursts, investors will look for somewhere else to hide, and many will turn to gold as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty and equity drawdowns.

I repeated this every few days throughout Q1, and it is worth repeating now. Gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis but trades like a risk asset during one. Once the floodgates open, nothing survives, including gold. The evidence that the AI bubble is beginning to burst is becoming increasingly clear. If it does, gold will likely fall with equities instead of acting as a safe haven.

This is especially true in the current macro setup. The SPR is still being drawn at a historically rapid pace, with inventories sitting near multi-decade lows. Hormuz traffic shows no sign of normalizing, and the 3-2-1 crack spread continues to hit record highs. Oil and refined products are keeping inflation pressure alive and pushing yields higher, adding another direct headwind for gold.

As I said a few weeks ago, gold must decouple from yields and the dollar before it can stabilize and start grinding higher. This remains the most important signal for anyone eager to buy gold dips.

Technically, 3.9K-4K remains solid ST support. I expect the descending triangle to resolve over the next week or two. If my view that the AI bubble is beginning to burst proves correct, the triangle will likely resolve lower unless gold can decouple from the dollar, which should rally during a sharp equity selloff.

XAUUSDGold and silver have remained range-bound in relatively tight ranges over the past five weeks, even as equities sold off and yields surged.

My long-term view on gold has not changed. I still expect gold to outperform most asset classes over the next few years, with massive upside from here. That view already assumes both short- and long-term yields continue higher. Higher yields have traditionally been a headwind for gold, but gold and silver can decouple from yields. I expect both metals to rally alongside yields when the time comes.

For gold, 3.9K-4K remains pivotal ST support. The longer price stays pinned around this level, the more violent the eventual move should be. Ideally, I would like to see one final false breakdown into 3.7K-3.8K to rinse the bulls who accumulated around 3.9K-4K, followed by a sharp reversal higher.