Research update

A running archive of Silver views from Tactical Positioning.

XAGUSDGold and silver continue to outperform. I still see gold ultimately working higher toward 5,000 and silver toward 100.

Historically, gold tends to outperform both before and after crises, but during crisis it can trade more like a risk asset - often dipping alongside equities during sharp drawdowns.

This cycle may not be any different.

XAGUSDGold printed a new ATH at 4888 in the Asia session while silver stalled. It looks like the market is giving gold room to catch up to silver, so they can reach my target prices of 5k for gold and 100 for silver around the same time.

Silver is now sitting more than 30% above the upper Bollinger Band on the monthly chart. Extremes like this do not bode well for equities.

A major correction appears increasingly imminent.

I have written this several times, but it is worth repeating: gold tends to outperform pre and post crisis, but not during a crisis.

XAGUSDGold broke above 5k and printed 5100, but pulled back into the close and finished below the generational resistance on the daily chart.

Both gold and silver printed shooting stars after a steep run.

If I see further drawdowns, it could mark the start of a consolidation phase for the commodity complex.

I have repeatedly warned to tighten your stop loss on both gold and silver as the move gets steeper. Silver action was a prime example of why trailing stops can work extremely well under extreme conditions.

XAGUSDSilver looks less promising than gold, but it has held the key 71 support.

As long as it doesn't break this level, momentum remains to the upside. If it breaks below, we could see it back to 50-60.

XAGUSDSilver's outlook looks less promising than gold. We just saw another historic drop overnight, and it retested last week's low in the low 70s.

A confirmed breakdown should lead to a test of the lower uptrend line around 60.

XAGUSDMy 90 resistance and 70 support levels worked perfectly in the past few trading days for silver.

XAGUSDSilver remains range bound between 90 and 70 as I outlined two weeks ago.

XAGUSDAs I have outlined a few times, silver's technicals are much weaker than gold's.

As shown below, it remains stuck in the 70-90 range and is trading in a descending channel.

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XAGUSDSilver is poised to retest the lower trendline around the 60s if it fails to reclaim 90.

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XAGUSDSilver is still lagging gold, but it's starting to build strength.

If gold tests 5.25K, silver should be able to at least probe the major resistance around 90.

XAGUSDSilver's technicals remain weaker than gold as it struggles to break above the major resistance around 90.

XAGUSDGold pulled back from the major resistance around 5.4K as expected.

Silver continues to lag gold, as it couldn't hold above the key 90 level for even half a day and has now retraced back below it.

I warned this repeatedly in January, but it's worth saying again: gold tends to outperform pre and post crisis, and trades like a risk asset during a crisis.

As equities get ever closer to the breaking point, once the floodgates open, nothing survives, including gold.

The only thing that can go up is USD/DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), and perhaps oil if the conflict escalates. And I do think the market is underpricing the odds of this conflict turning into a years long war.

XAGUSDSilver's technicals are similar to gold's, but it has more work to do if it wants to head higher.

A break below the channel risks a retest of the major trendline around 65.

XAGUSDSilver has a similar formation.

If it doesn't reclaim the channel, the next major support sits around 63.

XAGUSDI warned that silver was likely to head much lower when it was trading around 90. Now it's around 70.

Similar to gold, it sits at a critical support level.

A break from here will lead to a retest of the major trendline in the low 60s.

XAGUSDSilver is showing relative strength against gold on Friday.

I expect a meaningful bounce from the trendline support.

XAGUSDNote that silver bounced from its major trendline support on Monday.

Similar to gold, a break below silver's major trendline would be devastating, as we would likely see a move back into the 50s.

On the upside, 72 remains the ST resistance, as silver has struggled to break above it over the past few days. We need to see a clean break above 80 to signal more upside.

XAGUSDSilver bounced from its major trendline support last Monday and pulled back from the dotted trendline resistance.

If it does not climb above the dotted line, it risks heading lower.

XAGUSDSilver needs to climb above 79 to see more upside.

XAGUSDSilver is tangling around the key resistance near 79.

If it can hold above it for a few days, we could see it head higher.

XAGUSDSilver must hold above the uptrendline support around 74, or it risks heading back to test the major support around 68.

On the upside, it must reclaim 79 and hold there for a few days for momentum to pick up.

XAGUSDSilver broke below the uptrendline support around 74 and is now testing the trendline from below.

70 is the key level to watch, as a decisive breach below it would suggest further downside.

Similar to gold, silver is highly correlated with oil prices. Higher oil prices -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on silver, and vice versa.

XAGUSDSilver must sit above 80.8 to see further upside.

Higher oil prices -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on silver, and vice versa.

XAGUSDSilver managed to pull off a rather untimely breakout above the key 80.8 resistance on Monday.

I wrote before Tuesday's market open: "Silver has broken above the key 81 resistance level. It is important to note that gold has not confirmed silver's breakout. Gold remains range-bound between 4660 and 4770, as outlined in the previous tactical positioning. Additionally, oil is back above 100, as I predicted. I continue to expect a retest of the recent highs around 115-120 for Brent and WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude). Higher oil should add further upward pressure on yields, which in turn creates downside pressure for both gold and silver. So while silver's breakout is constructive, the macro backdrop is not yet fully supportive. Nevertheless, for bulls, the textbook entry is to wait for pullbacks toward support, with stops placed just below the support area."

Silver then surged toward 90 shortly after, confirming my tactical precision, before reversing after testing 90 on the logic I have repeatedly emphasized: higher oil prices -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on silver, and vice versa.

For bulls, a breach above 80.8 opens the door for a test of 88-90. For bears, wait for a confirmed breach below the major trendline around 72.

XAGUSDHigher oil prices -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on silver.

Silver remains above the major trendline. If it breaches below that level, further downside is warranted.

XAGUSDSilver rebounded precisely from my major trendline support around 72.

That trendline must hold, otherwise we could see it much lower.

On the upside, 81 and 88 are the key resistance levels.

XAGUSDSilver technicals had been weaker than gold's since early February.

As gold broke below key support, silver also broke below its major trendline support on Friday.

I expect further weakness from here.

XAGUSDSilver remains weaker than gold. It broke the major trendline support and has failed to reclaim it.

The weekly chart is the problem. What used to be support is now resistance.

Unless silver gets back above that trendline quickly, the breakdown remains valid and the tape points lower.

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XAGUSDSilver remains weaker than gold. It already lost the major uptrend support and found support around 55, below that I have a support zone around 51.8-53.1.

Silver can stage a relief bounce from current level as gold hit a critical support zone in the past few days.

For bulls, 51.8-53.1 must hold. A sustained break below this box would confirm another leg lower and open the door to a much deeper reset.

For bears, do not chase into support. Wait for a confirmed break below the box.

XAGUSDSilver bounced from the rising support line near $56 and is trying to stabilize after the June selloff.

XAGUSDThis chart gives a more granular view on the downside path. If the ascending trendline fails, $53-$52 is the next key support, with generational support at $48 as the next line in the sand if that breaks.